USDJPY

Broad-rock wrote: Rossymc, I thought that wave 4 cant overlap wave 1 in an impulse, I am not sure but maybe this is a corrective wave.

this is from Comprehensive course on the Elliot wave principle.

Impulse
The most common motive wave is an impulse. In an impulse, wave 4 does not enter the territory of (i.e.,
"overlap") wave 1.

Hi broad oak

I use ewt as a guide only. I am currently looking into price action.

Regards RMc

Rossymc wrote: Liking this now Jackozy

Wave 4 bottom hit (slight overlap of wave 1 high) with a delightful Doji
RSI uptrend intact
Bounced from trendline of wave 2 bottom


Target 80.5 and 82.6

screencast.com/t/VMkRQ7c82

RMc

Long 7928 40 stop
Targets above

ATB RMc

Broad-rock, yes, you are correct for normal impulse waves in that wave 4 should not penetrate wave 1 territory. This can only be permitted in the event of a leading diagonal (of which the waves 1 and 4 mentioned would be subwaves). This is not yet out of the question, but I fell it's now unlikely and that it's more likely that my wave count is wrong and 80.675 was probably the top of wave 5.

For now, I've closed my long on this pair based on this chart with a revised wave count:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily13_11_12.gif

So, it looks like the trendline bounce may be a wave B with wave C down to somewhere near the 61.8% Fib to come. Supporting this idea is the breakdown and backtest of the RSI uptrend which is when and why I closed my long. In addition, as Broad-rock points out, the low at the trendline was below the wave 1 high so there's a number of factors coming together to support the breakdown of the previous wave count.

This just shows that you can never completely rely on a wave count and that we should always be on the lookout for alternatives and/or contrary analyses. In fact, whenever I take a position, rather than look for more analysis to support it, I prefer to look for analyses against it. If I can't find any then I ought to be OK. It's easy to lose objectivity if you're looking to support your own view...

ATB

Morning Jackozy, looking at how i would have set my fibbo, a higher high was reached on 19/9 (so my 100 would be placed at the top of this candle, the zero would be placed at the low of candle dated 13/9.

You will then see that the pullback went to 23.6 (with some PA) from the 23.6 the price went to the 161.8, at present the price has pulled back and is holding the 100 (as expected)

So my target is now the 261.8 which price wise is 82.60 my stop loss is 79.20.

On a wave count it looks like wave 4 is completing. KI.

Welcome back KI. Hope you had a good holiday.

Thanks for that. It's intersting as it's really not all that dissimilar to my original analysis. Just one question: how do you account for the wave 4 low overlapping the wave 1 high? Are you overlooking this based on a closing prices method?

Jackozy wrote: Welcome back KI. Hope you had a good holiday.

Thanks for that. It's intersting as it's really not all that dissimilar to my original analysis. Just one question: how do you account for the wave 4 low overlapping the wave 1 high? Are you overlooking this based on a closing prices method?

Very good hol thanks Jackozy.

I would tend to ignore the overlap (especialy on a spike which this was). Also i would trust the fibbo over the wave count. So yes closing price method and price action. There is also 4 weeks of support around this price level (on weekly chart)

I should be up and running posting charts by end of week. KI.