USDJPY

This has bounced of this level a few times now. So there is a chance this may breakout soon.
shorting at 9498 has already gone as its already bounced of on first attempt basis. But the fact that its still hanging around this level now increases the chance of a breakout tomorrow.
so keep an eye out on the NFP tomorrow as that may send this flying.
This pair has moved a large amount since i first mentioned this.
If your already short on this protect your winnings. make it a free trade just encase.


dl.dropbox.com/u/4899609/jpyusd7thmarch.png

Looking at trading this on the 4H chart:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPY4H21_03_13.gif

There's a bearish RSI divergence coupled with a lower high and a possible second lower high where the RSI downtrend came into play from that bear div. These followed lower lows. A close below 95.748 will mean a failed breakout and a close below 94.28 will mean a further lower low and more downside IMHO.

I initially went long on the backtest of 95.748 but have now reversed that and am short (bit early really) as the price came back to the breakout level a second time suggesting it's not likely to hold. On its own that's not a decision-maker, but added to everything else was enough for me to open the short, if only a small position. Stops above 96.132.

Closed the short at the short term trendine support shown here. Now waiting for a breakout either way:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPY4H21_03_13a.gif

I re-opened that short when the short term trendline broke but closed again at the 94.28 support. This is a strong area with plenty of support from the daily uptrend and 94.28 and 94.46 levels as well as being at daily RSI support as shown on the daily chart:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily24_03_13.gif

Th 4H chart shows this area in close up:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPY4H24_03_13.gif

The question is: will the daily and 4H bearish divergences prove stronger than the uptrend support or vice versa? Either way there should be some good pips to be made quite soon on this pair.

Trend line play
This could be bouncing of the short term trend line. stops below the recent low at 10068.
The risk is small compared to the reward.
This is a very volatile currency so nopt for the faint heart .


There is an inside bar on this as well

This should be a free trade now....
Perfect entry again