GKP

screencast.com/t/dgV8kdQCl




This continues to follow a well forcast path with completion of the next wave expected to be between 195 and 185.

My take is still a very clear short term H&S, and the neckline was broken yesterday with a close below it, so I expect a relatively quick retrace below 200 if it plays out correctly. Money flow index and stochastic also now heading south. A lower close today will also probably give a negative tick on MACD.

Some support to be broken at 202/203 with the MA200 and MA20 on the way down.

Correction to my last post here. The rising trendline from 164 was only broken yesterday. I took a quick reading off the iii javachart the other day, which as, i should have known, was woefully inaccurate. Apologies for that.

Likely targets are the 50% retracement level of the 161 move at 195 or 61.8% fib at 186/187, the 186/187 area also being horizontal support from 12.12.12. My orders are in at the 187/188 level having closed my 162 purchases at 220+.

Funny that the conclusion is the same as made by the wave therapists but by a different method. Jackozy, do you use retracement levels and fibs for your wave targets?

I won't post my chart because people will want to redraw it

F4T

PS: Also note that S&P500 touched 1505 out of cash play yesterday, then retraced. I would like to see it do so in market hours to create a possible top. All indices overextended IMO.

Hi F4T,

I like the "wave therapists" name - seems appropriate somehow lol!

Yes, I do use Fibs with my wave targets. IMHO Fibs are actually derived from the initial conditions assumed by Elliott when he did his research so the 2 methods are inter-dependent as far as I'm concerned.

I should also say that I don't only use EWT. I use all the TA methods I'm aware of and then look for a convergence between these differing analyses; the more methods that point to the same conclusion, the more confidence I get for the trade.

On that note, I totally agree with your view and have held that same expectation for quite a while now. I always look for reasons I could be wrong (rather than always looking for reasons I'm right) and I haven't seen any yet on this particular analysis. I'm still looking though.

PS Please post your chart - I'd like to see it!

Null hypotheses, not many people understand that principle Jackozy, maybe you were/are a good scientist? If not, maybe you should have been.

Thanks Shotry.

Not in employment, no, but I did advanced maths and the sciences at A level and then Uni.

No other method makes sense does it? What's the point in always trying to prove yourself right? That's what I see so many chartists doing (especially wrt GKP) and what I used to do myself until I learnt that it's a sure way to failure.

Everyone can always come up with reasons supporting ther view no matter how contrived they may be but you learn nothing from this. The real beauty of doing it the other way round (null hypothesis) is that you get a win/win situation.


ATB

Couldn't agree more, however I find it a constant battle to be objective. Often I manage it, sometimes I fail and it doesn't help me when I fail.