GKP

Jacko, do you see any merit in the following: it appears that if you take the rise from 87p to 450p (Aug11-Feb12), we have now dropped easily through the 78.6%% Fib retracement of that move at 164p. The next level to look at is the 88.6% level at 129p (and maybe yesterday's 131.5p is that test). If 129p fails, then the full 100% retracement could well be tested at 87p.

I note that the 129p level corresponds with many of the technical indicators posted earlier in this thread by farmertim.

B77,

Yes, I do see merit in that. I think 131.5p is close enough to 129p to count as the same. If that level goes then, from memory, there's really only the 111p area to hold it and that's not strong imho.

By the way, I just want to say well done to you for getting to grips with TA. I know it's not for everyone who invests and you're probably mainly a fundamentals guy (based on your impressive research and knowledge in that area) but I have to respect you for adding TA to your arsenal. KNowing about it doesn't mean you have to use it but at least it helps manage the emotional side of investing!

With vol. and MACD more pronouned than June 2012, no suprise if the trend continues below 139p now 141.75p has broken, whether 131p/129p; 111p or lower holds time will tell. Looking at the oblique support on this ProRealtime chart, 103.5p & 100.5p could occur on 10/6/13 & 18/6/13 respectively.Good or bad news from the court case?

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/87556809/0da...6072e3d45599_png.mht

Wave 1 4.5p to 450p, -61.8% 175p, -78.6% 100p.

Wave 1 13p to 450p, -61.8% 180p, -78.6% 106p, assuming breakout of downtrend on 6/8/2009 RNS oil found day, an alternative view, but very similar to J's Wave 1.

Still waiting for selling climax.

"There will be a wide spread down-day, often driving down into recent (closed at 128.25 1/11/11; 124.50 4/10/11; 103.00 5/8/11; 100.75 8/8/11) or new low ground (87p 4/8/11)all pre that spike, and then closing at or near the highs, on high vol. Note this indicator is more reliable when the day is gapped down and the following day is gapped up - add more bullishness if news is bad. Any down-day on low vol.(no selling) after this event, especially if it closes on the high of the day, is a strong indicator of market strength". Page 81 Master the Markets - volume analysis.

B77. I hope I'm not butting in but I see no merit in taking a starting point from an arbitrary point like 87p. Why not 64p for example?
If you want an overall picture then take the extremes of price. On my chart, which admittedly is not the best, 4.55p is the lowest point. Plot your fibs from there and you will find 131.50 falling neatly into the extended target area between 61.8% and 76.4%. The primary target area being 50% to 61.8% on all retraces of a completed move. The 76.4% falls at 113.22 which has provided support in the past. Due to the extremes of action that propelled the SP to 465.00 it is no surprise to see it extending during the retrace.
Should this prove to be the low, this is also the place from which to plot the extension. My current best bet on the overall construction of this share is that it is forming a zigzag: structured 5;3;5 in waves. There are five distinct moves in an A wave terminating at 465.00, and three moves in the current retrace. Granted the current retrace has not reached an invalidation point yet, in that it hasn't proved the move is complete, but there are some indications that may point that way. Hopefully all of the above is apparent from this chart.........

If we now move to the daily chart we can look for the fib extensions from the highs in an attempt to determine the possible low of, what I am calling, wave B. Again start with the extremes. So look to 465.00 as a starting point. From there plot to 139.25 at A and back up to 259.49 at B. Now, the fib construction of ZigZags determines a C wave to be either 61.8; 100; or 123.6% of wave A and this is where the conflict arises. The 61.8 extension from this high comes at 58.177 - shake; shiver; quiver! - Whereas, making the same calculation of the internal structure of the C wave thru B;W;X in yellow, provides a 100% extension at 129.51, and a max 123.6% at 106.27. The grey extension is a c of C and is already extended to 161.8% so I may well have got that labeling wrong and will need to re-label, but this also terminates at 128.57.


So, both of these internal structures, together with the RSI and StochRSI are looking exhausted, hence my supposition the wave may well be complete.
Now, I am not placing any bets on this as it is only theory. I am firmly in the 'Remo Camp' of wanting to see. what I call, invalidation, and what he terms a '123' pattern, before risking hard-earned cash. So please, DYOR.
It is not often I get time to put detail on paper so apologise if some of my posts appear a bit cryptic at times but trust this provides some missing detail.
Have a great weekend folks - Spring is here; April is almost done and it's 6 degrees outside! This global warming has a lot to answer for!!!

there seems to be an attraction to the lowest point of 50p range of late, coincidence this price was first monthly range since start of trading back sept 2004 - 60p high to 48.5p low and monthly close of 56.4p.

in fact sept 2004 - june 2007 clear support price was 48p with highest price in that period being 98p oct 2005.....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_monthlyv1.JPG

Hi Diver, no such things as "butting in" on an open discussion mate - all views welcome here surely?

A couple of observations that I'm sure will make you smile

1) You've labelled the move from 4.55p to 465p as a wave A. By definition, this is the first subwave of a corrective sequence (ABC). The (very) long term implication of this is a low below 4.55p. It also implies a previous price higher than where you'd project your C to end since the whole ABC would be a correction to a previous downtrend. I think you really need to look at a way to label 4.55p to 465p as an impulse motive wave up. ie a wave 1 of some degree, or possibly a wave 1 and some subwaves of a wave 3 as I've done. I'm not saying my labelling is definitely right - I'd quite like to find a way to count 4.55p to 465p as a single set of 5 waves which would put us in a wave 2 down now and still leave us with a chance of hanging on to the 78.6% Fib at 100p.

2) 87p is not an abitrary level. It was the final support on the retreat from 202.75p and is, therefore, significant. If the sequence from 4.55p to 202.75p was a 5 wave sequence then that drop from 202.75p to 87p would have to have been the wave 2 of larger degree and would therefore be the projection point for upside extension targets. Indeed, that very extension played out almost perfectly as the 161.8% extension was at 409p. There are other possibilities of course.

3) Re your projection for your wave C of B (A of C given as 465p to 139.25p, B of B as 139.25p to 260p). The maximum extension of A that C can be is 79.75% and this would have C at a price of zero pence. Perhaps this move down from 465p might be better counted as a double or triple three? That way you don't need to worry about problematic projections of the 465p to 139.25p move. Just an idea.



WS: That's an interesting take. Here's something else to add to it: the 161.8% extension of 260p to 161p from 228p comes in at 68p which falls right in your ball park. There's also an oft-overlooked trendline - that from the 4.55p and 10.25p lows in 2009. Plot that trendline and where does it sit now? That's right, 68p. Given the shallow nature of it, it won't move up too quickly so it remains approximately valid for quite some time.

Also, looking at your monthly chart the waves down from 465p look very clear to me, I just wish I could get the whole sequence up to be a 5 wave move which conforms to the rules. In addition, unlike at previous turning points on the monthly chart, the indicators you've shown, rather than appearing to bottom out or turn, look to be turning further downwards and even diverging. The July 2010 candle, being fairly small, gave the chance for an August bullish engulfing candle, and the August 2011 candle was clearly a big hammer. It's going to take something spectacular on Monday and Tuesday to make April 2013's candle look anything other than very bearish. And when was the last time the SP rose during May and June of a given year? Answer: it never has.

One final general point. Following Thursday's big long-legged doji, Friday has formed an inside bar so at least in the short term we can look for a break of either 143p or 136p for direction.