Gold

nice trade remo, bounce at 1181 and 16 USD up.

i still think it has to back test that 1000-1015 break out.

will take time, but that will be an amazing trade if it gets there.

even the 1181 ---> 1040 if it breaks down.

need balls of steel though.

Some thoughts:

The weekly:


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/15745438/Trading/GOLD-weekly.png

The daily:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/15745438/Trading/GOLD-daily.png


My summary?

$1,121 (or thereabouts might be a strong support area - arguably, the area where the foundation for the mammoth spring board was laid).

Furthermore, whilst gold miners do hedge, the mean break-even for them collectively is around $1,200, so this will be a very interesting period for HUI as well as PM prices and ratios (w.r.t. Silver and Oil).

The Swiss initiative later this month, whilst starting out heavily in favour of a "YES" vote, suddenly looks to favour the "NO" group, because the SNB can now turn around and tell the laymen: "see? look what happens when you hold this useless metal", totally ignoring their role in doing real damage in partnership with Gordon Brown, by selling Gold at around $200 (forming the "brown bottom").

Anyway, digressing here... back to the technicals: The daily chart shows an aggressive band downwards that needs to reverse hard for any meaningful upside in my humble opinion.

A rally around $1215-$1220 should be bullish, but that's a long way off right now; so for the time being, possible further weakness until it becomes a crowded trade.

Disclosure: I'm (eternally!) gold-biased, and happy to accumulate physical bullion at these prices, but trading wise, be nimble folks, on either direction.

It has been a while since my last Gold view, so whilst we await a more authoritative technical view from our resident experts (come on guys, you know who you are ), here's my view:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/15745438/Trading/GOLD-24-03-15.png

It could go either way to be honest; and the way DXY was bought into after Yellen's smack down, it wouldn't surprise me if Gold gets spanked again; but there's a case a basing range is forming for bounce.

As always, I'm happy to receive feedback.

p.s. One thing I can't get "cheap" any more is gold bullion. Gold in EUR / JPY terms is up up 20-25%, in GBP terms it is up some 7-10%, of its lows. The same goes for gold against any trade-weighted Dollar component; except the USD itself.

Talk about the USD de-coupling from every single asset class there is!

Haven't been keeping tabs on gold recently however I do have a long silver position, which on a weekly view is shaping up nicely.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/24866576/Mar...0-47-49%20Silver.png

Gold - could be the start of a breakout, but early days and heading into a load of resistance between 1200 - 1220.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/24866576/Mar..._20-50-22%20Gold.png

Cheers,
M.

Looks like gold is breaking out today.

It needs a close above 158.

Looks like gold is breaking out today.

It needs a close above 1144 on the weekly.



close up