- Posts: 898
- Thank you received: 0
Gold
13 years 2 months ago #2929
by Jackozy
This looks to me to be in a wave 3 hence it's motoring on nicely. The RSI downtrend from the bearish divergence at the recent 1796 high could be broken on today's close and that could, in turn, be in indicator of a price breakthrough of the matching downtrend resistance. I've shown it on the following chart:
dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Golddaily10_01_13.gif
The retrace half way down the hammer looks to have been a wave 2 of some degree so I've projected that and the "normal" wave 3 extension target of the 161.8% Fib comes in nicely around the 1701 mark which coincides with natural resistance and that intermediate downtrend. I'd therefore look to bank profit at that level (the RSI should have broken through before this happens) and perhaps re-enter at around the 1680 level (that would be a wave 4 retrace of 38.2%). If this works out, I'd also expect that it's at that point that the RSI would be backtesting its trendline break.
Obviously, this is all theoretical currently, but these are the sorts of I look for ie multiple TA methods all pointing towards the same levels. If these all look good at the time I'll execute the above plan. If not I'll re-assess.
On the bigger picture, the above waves I'm talking about would just be subwaves of a larger degree wave up as I suspect we could be just starting a big new bull trend in gold IMHO.
dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Golddaily10_01_13.gif
The retrace half way down the hammer looks to have been a wave 2 of some degree so I've projected that and the "normal" wave 3 extension target of the 161.8% Fib comes in nicely around the 1701 mark which coincides with natural resistance and that intermediate downtrend. I'd therefore look to bank profit at that level (the RSI should have broken through before this happens) and perhaps re-enter at around the 1680 level (that would be a wave 4 retrace of 38.2%). If this works out, I'd also expect that it's at that point that the RSI would be backtesting its trendline break.
Obviously, this is all theoretical currently, but these are the sorts of I look for ie multiple TA methods all pointing towards the same levels. If these all look good at the time I'll execute the above plan. If not I'll re-assess.
On the bigger picture, the above waves I'm talking about would just be subwaves of a larger degree wave up as I suspect we could be just starting a big new bull trend in gold IMHO.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
13 years 2 months ago #3131
by Jackozy
This broke out of it's short term downtrend yesterday. Here's the daily chart showing next resistances at 1695 (horizontal)and 1707 (next downtrend):
dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Golddaily16_01_13.gif
Also looks to be forming an ascending triangle on the hourly which generates a target of 1695:
dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Goldhourly16_01_13.gif
dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Golddaily16_01_13.gif
Also looks to be forming an ascending triangle on the hourly which generates a target of 1695:
dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Goldhourly16_01_13.gif
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
Moderators: remo
Time to create page: 0.200 seconds