DOW

The dow being a pain as usual. It just does not want to give us a nice christmas present . This index can be a pain.
A good entry to go long was at 15710 yesterday on a first attempt basis. That entry has now gone.
This correction is not unusual as most correction form in a ABC pattern. Thats one of the reason that a 123 high can be risky to trade. The dow has basically gone back into the channel that it temporary broke out from.The time to be concerned is if the dow goes below 15670 then that could mean a fall back down to 15522 where if it breaks will open up the test of the trend line at 15160ish.
As for the christmas rally.
Its still possible as we still have at least 7 trading days remaining and that could easily mean a massive points change. Look for an early indication by the dow finishing above the previous days high.
The previous days high for today is at 15846. A finish above this could signal a end to the correction as currently the correction has an ABC format.
As for wave counts
were still in wave 3 of the dow so we are expecting wave 4 some time next year and this correction should last about 6 months.
ive got this at wave 5 of major 3....and wave 2 of 5 currently so 3 minor waves remaining...to the big correction. So markets may have until may or june next year to go up till then a big correction.

Please dont ask me about waves as trying to put them to paper does my head in. I dont know the way people label them and that seems to throw a lot of people. This is how i do it and its down to you how you want to read this.
i have this as wave 2 of 5 of 3.
Any way i could be wrong on all this so take with a pinch of salt.
I dont normally tell people about waves but since its cristmas i thought id share my wave count
have fun translating this. and im not available for any questions


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dowwaves2013.png



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow13thdec13.png

Ha ha! Thanks remo - don't blame you for not wanting to field questions on waves!

We've been looking at some wave options in the chatroom and wave int ii of major 5 of primary 3 seems to be the most likey.

A close above 15790 might also be enough as that should rule out the possibility of a 5 wave down move (since it would overlap the possible wave 1 down).

All fun and games!

PS The 3 waves down to 703 could also just be wave A of int ii (assuming it was a low). I'd normally expect a wave 2 to go deeper than this has so far.

I'd love it to drop to that trendline by Dec 27th as it coincides with the 61 fib at 15275 on that date and would be a great place to buy for a Happy New Year )

PPS Remember that fractal I showed you? It also had a false breakout of the channel before dropping back to about half way up the channel and then a massive breakout. Could we be on for the same?



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/dowfractal.png

Possible 123 low formation??? This is based on the hourly chart.
Long above 15798 with stop below the 2 point . This is during market hours only.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dowhourly13thdec.png

Its been a while since i posted an update on Dow, was not much to say really apart from providing day to day views on Chat, my view has always been up up n away and not much has changed since my last post(s).

So as we end 2013 and enter 2014, what's in store for this market ? do i hear/see a bubble expanding and substantial new highs to come ? The Bull market extends 2015/2016 but within that time frame there will be a significant correction approx ~2000/3000 pips on the Dow, followed by new highs to complete the bull market (pri IV & V), we are still in Primary III (parabolic).

My Personal objective as a minimum next year and possibly into 2015/6 is ~10000 Dow pips on swing basis, intra-day trading will add more coin to it


and here is how i see it coming for now - these are just projections and more accurate price points can be determined near the time based on time and price action etc. i'll monitor and adjust. the chart posted contains 2 counts a primary and alternative - both Bully.

Pri III Target = ~17600 or 18200/18283
Pri IV Target = ~15289
Pri V Target = 19261 or 21965



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Dow_weekly_29thDec2013.JPG

All imho, dyor.

rgds,

WS - bully going into 2014

WaveSurfer wrote: i think its time to revisit this post from back in Mar 13 (when Dow was breaking out of its all time highs from 2007) and provide an update on the chart.

The breakout was indeed powerful, where to next and what will happen thereafter, maybe the devil is in the detail and scattered in the past to forecast the future.... just something to think about, we could be in going into blue sky territory and upper targets are becoming much harder, i would not discount the bull extending either..there is wave count to support it, we'll just have to see if another breakout and confirmation of it takes place or not.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Dow_Breakouts.JPG

The market floods you with many tools and indicators but more often than not simplicity is the best policy.

all imho, dyor etc...

rgds,

WS (a Bull until the market say's it's not)

WaveSurfer wrote: Here's a quick analysis of the Dow when it has taken out it's previous (all time) highs over the years...

on the chart you will see: est breakout targets based on previous range vs actual top price and the respective difference, hopefully the chart is self explanatory....

apart from what i have put on the chart, there are some other observations to be made with respect to the length of time it has taken the dow to get to it's previous highs and once it has, the results thereafter as an example....

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/dow_historical%20breakouts.JPG

just something to ponder