Lloyds

Jackozy wrote: This has played out perfectly and is now approaching the downtrend resistance from the 2010 high which is at 54.58

If it breaks the downtrend I'll go long to that gap.

Hi jackozy.
I take it your on about the current gap up for a long on the gap fill?? And not on the gap at 57.7 as this would be resistance.

Hi remo,

I wrote that before today's gap up. I wasn't expecting it to gap over the downtrend so for me, now, it's a sideline job. I'll wait either to go long at today's gap fill, or to go short at the 57.7p one as long as there are some sell signals there.

This last move off the trendline needs a wave 4 (of 5) imho. The whole move up from 21.6p has a lovely wave structure so far and we seem to be in the 5th wave of that so the 57.7p gap looks a good target for the top of that wave. Does that makes sense?

Hi jackozy..
Perfectly makes sense from an Elliott point of view
It actually fits really well so a good level to short would be 63 as that would be the same size roughly as the wave 1 move (wave 5)
Ohhh i better not get into this elliott stuff as it does my brain in

Jackozy/Remo

Not being an expert on Elliots can you please tell me after the 5 waves for lloyds can we expect an abc retrace and then what is the the bigger wave count please.

Many thanks

SRB

Oh forgot to mention 63.00 might be a tad high Remo as the government was talking about offloading at 61p.

SRB

Hi SRB, sorry for not seeing your post and getting back to you.

First, we need to seem to have only had 3 waves up from the trendline so far so we'll need to make some assumptions. Here's a chart with a possible count on to help us:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/LLOYdaily02_05_13.gif

The double trendline bounce at point 4 appears to have been waves i and ii of 5 up, the gap up to the trendline breakout failure seems to have been iii of 5 so we might have started wave v of 5 from today's gap fill.

If this is the case then it's likely that there'll be a move towards the 60.86 resistance or the 63.4p one, both shown, though a 5th wave can fail and come up short (the trendline might casue this here).

Where ever it does top out at, there looks to have been a clear 5 waves up from 21.63 so we need to look at what happened before that to see what level of retracement we could expect from the new high. Here it gets messy as there's no clear wave structure between 2009 lows and the 21.637 low. However, 21.637p was a significant low so it seems most likely (to me) that the sequence up from 21.637 is a wave 1 of some degree or other (either a wave 1 or a subwave 1). In that case we could expect a possible 50-61.8% retrace. Even if it's a wave 4 of some degree then we should get c. 38.2% retrace.

Based on that, and assuming for argument's sake a top at 60.86p to coincide with your statement re govt intentions, I'd look to the following chart for those retracements:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/LLO...yretrace02_05_13.gif

Note how both the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibs coincide exactly with natural supports if we assume that top at 60.86p. Note also, however, the weekly candle - a possible shooting star at 2 known resistances - so the top may already have formed.

Hope that helps.