Institutional Technical Analysis

Has any one got any access to the UBS 2016 outlook? Was published on Tuesday...

Cheers
M

Got my hands on a copy if anyone is interested:

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/24866576/UBS...hnical%20Outlook.pdf

Cheers
M

Hi Monkeyz, and thanks for sharing once again

My quick take home from the paper (and please share your thoughts / comments here too) ............I guess for the old die hard long and hold investor types, its time to sit on cash and wait for a Mar 2009 type bottom to have been put in until commiting fresh capital (or dare I say averaging down on some longs) for the long term.
I guess I am relatively young....so can wait....roll on 2018/2019

Has anyone got some simple strategies to make money in this kind of environment ?

I say simple as I work full time and have a young (ish) family, so low maintenance trading would be the kind of thing I would be interested in.

in fact, having now fully read this ....it seems H2 2016 or 2017 we may indeed see the oppotunitiy for comodities in a bear rally which should last until 2020 (ish) so cash at the ready for H2 2016 and any opportunities

Hi Ade

I would agree with your conclusions on commodities in H2 2016 onwards but don't forget the shorter term opportunities in commodities as well. My reading of this (and I read every issue that gets published on here) is that the US dollar should take a short term rest for a month or 2 very soon before coming back bullish. Lots of AIM miners have been breaking out over the last few weeks (and gold miners in particular because of the levels of geopolitical risk) and gains in the right miners could be considerable. Oil has also hit a medium term bottom around $32 and some of the quality oilers would be worth investing in.

My particular interest at the moment is gold. It may have already bottomed and if not the bottom is not far away and it can go up a very long way from where it is today. Gold funds and ETF's take the stress of the volatility out of it!

Good luck and thanks again to Monkeyz!

Hi Learning,
yes, Gold is something I am looking into...I have only found one or two ETF's for Gold, such as:

Physical Gold - www.iii.co.uk/research/LSE:PHGP

But not seen much else...any pointers appreciated.

I have not looked into the miners..as there are so many ways to loose on an individual stock basis, so a Gold tracking ETF or fund (which ones are you aware of ?) could be the stree free / hassle free way to go